ANALYSIS | With more than half of the New Hampshire primary vote reported, the Associated Press called the race for Mitt Romney, and by a significant margin. Learning that Romney was victorious in taking about 38 percent of the vote was not surprising, especially given his win, albeit a slim one, in Iowa. The results of both the Iowa and New Hampshire primaries paint a picture for the Republicans with Romney in the driver's seat.
Shaping up to be race worth watching is the race outside of Romney. The primary season is a long one and much can and will happen. The Republican candidates have already seen wildly fluctuating poll numbers in the months leading up the primary. The question now becomes who will have the opportunity to challenge Romney at some point should his position weaken.
In Iowa, Romney only beat Santorum by eight votes out of more than 100,000. They virtually tied with 25 percent of the vote each and it looked like Santorum may be a formidable opponent for Romney. But, in New Hampshire, Santorum picked up just 10 percent of the vote. His 10 percent was less than half of Ron Paul's 23 percent, less than Jon Huntsman's 17 percent, and tied with the 10 percent that Newt Gingrich picked up.
Could it be that Ron Paul is the only Republican in a position to challenge Romney once the Republican primary gets into the thick of things? In Iowa, Ron Paul was not far behind Romney's 25 percent with 21 percent of his own. Now, in New Hampshire, Paul was the only candidate besides Romney to break 20 percent in picking up almost a quarter of the vote.
Most don't consider Paul to be a serious contender due to some of his extreme views that do not mesh well with the Republican base. Some of the criticisms of Romney to this point have come from that same Republican base who are skeptical of his centrist leaning policies. Santorum on the other hand has, at times, played well to the Republican base with his conservative social positions and typically conservative governing philosophy. Perhaps he could have put pressure on Romney by catering to the Republican base.
But now, after dropping to a tie for fourth in New Hampshire, with just 10 percent of the vote, it appears that Santorum lacks the staying power necessary to battle the long primary season. In other words, if the New Hampshire primary is an accurate predictor, Mitt Romney will have no problem winning the Republican nomination for president with only Ron Paul to hold off.
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